![]() Consequently, to realize the reductions in fire severity predicted in this study, land managers in the western US could facilitate the transition of plant communities towards a state of equilibrium with the emerging climate through means such as active restoration treatments (e.g., mechanical thinning and prescribed fire) and passive restoration strategies like managed natural fire (under suitable weather conditions). As such, our predictions are best interpreted as a potential reduction in fire severity, a potential that may not be realized due human-induced disequilibrium between plant communities and climate. However, our model implicitly incorporates climate-induced changes in vegetation type, fuel load, and fire frequency. Model predictions suggest widespread reduction in fire severity for large portions of the western US. We then applied this model to several ( n = 20) climate change projections representing mid-century (2040–2069) conditions under the RCP 8.5 scenario. In this study, we used observed data from 1984 to 2012 for the western United States (US) to build a statistical model of fire severity as a function of climate. Although some fire regime characteristics (e.g., area burned and fire season length) are relatively well-studied in the context of a changing climate, fire severity has received less attention. ![]() Fire regime characteristics in North America are expected to change over the next several decades as a result of anthropogenic climate change.
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